Slate Star Scratchpad

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See, that’s what the app is perfect for.

Sounds perfect Wahhhh, I don’t wanna

I’m so used to “apologist” getting used to mean “bad person who defends an obviously indefensible thing” (eg “rape apologist”) that it floors me every time I see a theologian self-describe as a “professional apologist”. It’s like - he’s admitting it! Get him!

On September 17, 2010, comedian Bill Maher aired a clip of [Republican Senate candidate Christine] O'Donnell from the October 29, 1999, episode of his old show Politically Incorrect on his current show Real Time with Bill Maher, in which O'Donnell said, “I dabbled into witchcraft – I never joined a coven. … I hung around people who were doing these things… We went to a movie and then had a little midnight picnic on a satanic altar. And I didn’t know it.”

Her admission received widespread media coverage, and O'Donnell explained that she had been referring to high school experiences. O'Donnell followed up with a TV campaign ad for the general election which featured her declaring, “I’m not a witch”. This ad inspired many video parodies, most famously by comedian Kristen Wiig on Saturday Night Live. O'Donnell later said that the ad backfired and focused attention on her decade-old statement.

Maher apologized to O'Donnell on his show in 2012 stating, “I know when I brought out the witch tape I made your life hell and I’m sorry about that. … I gotta say, I don’t agree with your ideas but it shouldn’t have hung on that stupid witch thing.” O'Donnell accepted the apology from Maher and blamed herself for partaking in the “I’m not a witch” advertisement.

existentialterror
shorthalt

my friends and i have this game we play where one person acts as host and goes onto r/somnivexillology, the subreddit dedicated to flags that have shown up in peoples dreams, and pick out a flag. the host then reads out the title of the flag, and gives the players a clue. the players then recreate their own interpretations of the flag prompt, and once everyone is done, they post their flags and the host reveals the original flag and picks a winner. its the best thing weve ever done.

shorthalt

one of the best ones was like this:

the prompt was “flag of the crabs that were hunting me down for war crimes” and the hint was “gay pride

we have dexters entry:

image

we have teddys entry:

image

we have the, objectively, far more boring original flag:

image
shorthalt

last night was pretty special

i hosted a round. the prompt was “The flag of Guam that I found on a book about Guam.” and the hint was “primary colors, a specific dreamworks protagonist, and a character ive thought about today

and the results were ASTOUNDING

we have dexters entry: 

image

we have teddys entry:

image

and we have the original flag:

image

none of these are anywhere close to what the flag of guam looks like. the country from the original flag ISNT EVEN GUAM

slatestarscratchpad

I bet this would go well with the Balderdash rules.

(ie everyone makes their own fake flag, the moderator puts the real flag in with all the fake ones, and all players have to guess which one is the real one. You get points by either guessing the real one, or having other players wrongly guess yours.)

Source: shorthalt
cop-disliker69
cop-disliker69

I don’t understand how someone can believe in the right of private property and then just be totally unconcerned with the origins of it.

Like I was arguing with this ancap once and I said “even under the idea of Lockean homesteading as the origin of land claims, nearly all current property ownership is illegitimate” and he just responded “muh indigenous people” like he’d heard this a million times and considered it a trivial objection.

How can that just be handwaved away?! And it’s not just about colonialism, this would apply even in Europe. No current land claim exists in an unbroken chain of voluntary trades/transfers/inheritances all the way back to the first person who legitimately homesteaded it and privatized a parcel of the natural commons. Basically of it came into ownership through violent conquest, state expropriation and distribution, and theft, making it illegitimate!

The only propertarian anarchism I would respect is one that argues for a property reset that voids all current land claims and says all new ones have to be arranged consensually, on legitimate Lockean principles. And then if capitalism and unequal distributions of property later re-emerge because that’s just naturally how the world works (“Economics 101”) then that would maybe be acceptable.

But to just uncritically accept the current distribution of property in the world, prima facie—that’s preposterous. The kind of thing only the ruling class who benefit from the status quo would propose, completely cynically and insincerely.

slatestarscratchpad

Lots of people have already responded to this (I didn’t reblog the whole reply chain, to save space), but here’s how I think of this.

“Property rights” are like logical validity, not logical soundness. They don’t state that a given property distribution is just. They’re a set of rules that you can follow to transform one property distribution into another property distribution. The best you can do is say “Given the property distribution yesterday, all the changes that happened between then and now have preserved property rights.”

(I know this wasn’t Locke’s view, but I think Locke’s view was kind of hack-ish)

According to the people who want property rights, these rules maximize economic productivity (not just in the boring sense where GDP is 1% higher, but at the extremes also in the sense where you are living in houses instead of starving in the mud). Starting with whatever original distribution of property, the economy will produce the most if the distribution only changes in ways that follow the rules of property rights.

So for example one part of property rights could be described as “don’t steal”. This isn’t a claim about the justice of a certain distribution of property. It’s just a claim that whatever your distribution of property today, if you want to maximze economic productivity, the changes you make to that distribution in order to get the distribution of property tomorrow, shouldn’t involve stealing. And the “justification” is that if there’s stealing, then people won’t produce as much, because they expect the stuff they produce will just get stolen before they can enjoy it.

(There are some ways that the usual conception of property rights departs from what seems to maximize economic productivity. For example, the economy would be more productive if we stole all the money from useless rent-seekers and spent it on infrastructure. I think the idea of a Schelling fence ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kbm6QnJv9dgWsPHQP/schelling-fences-on-slippery-slopes ) explains why we don’t do that - you could also analogize this to rule utilitarianism vs. act utilitarianism, or to why the rule for maximizing information flow is “freedom of speech” and not “freedom of speech except for dumb people who say dumb things and so aren’t contributing to useful information flow”.)

“But doesn’t this mean you could redistribute all property fairly, just once, and then stick to property rights from there so that the economy could still do well? Especially if you did this as a surprise, so that nobody saw it coming and produced less?”

I don’t think this would be the *worst* idea (though obviously there are practical considerations). But I also think it wouldn’t help much. There’s decent evidence that the effects of initial property allocation “decay” across generations. The most famous example is that the state of Georgia randomly distributed stolen Cherokee lands by a lottery. The settlers who won the lottery got free land worth about $70,000 in today’s money, the settlers who lost got nothing. Their descendants were equally wealthy after about two generations. Most descendants of the robber barons of the Gilded Age are still well-off but not robber barons themselves, etc. On the other hand, every generation some new people become rich through upward mobility - the most obvious example in the US being immigrants who all came to the country with nothing but some of them quickly got richer or poorer than others. So even if we distributed everything equally in generation 1, pretty quickly some people would quickly get more or less because of connections, skills, or luck. By generation 2 or 3, your only solace would be that your money depended on who your father or grandfather was, as opposed to your great-great-great-grandfather. After a few generations, you would have to redistribute everything again. But at this point you can’t credibly say the redistributions are happening “just once”, and you will get all the normal effects of people expecting to have their property taken from them and so producing less.

(slightly related: Coase’s theorem says that under certain conditions, property rights will still produce the economically efficient outcome regardless of the initial allocation of property. Those conditions don’t all hold but the theorem seems to be pretty close to reality. So from an economic efficiency standpoint, you might as well start with a random property allocation and let things develop naturally from there. So either the current property distribution, or a hypothetical fair property redistribution, could maximize economic efficiency if you followed property rights thereafter.)

This is why I support something more like a universal basic income. Instead of seizing all property and redistributing it once every few generations, you seize a small percent of property and redistribute it each year. It’s fairer (since it doesn’t disproportionately harm/benefit people at one specific time), and more efficient (since it only takes away a small percent of property, most of the incentives of private property still work and encourage people to produce, plus you can use the efficient tax literature to figure out how to disrupt incentives as little as possible, eg Georgism). As far as I can tell, this is the best way to balance the considerations in favor of property rights with the considerations of redressing the unfairness of some people starting with more than others.

serinemolecule
serinemolecule

From @slatestarscratchpad‘s 2020 predictions:

32. I vote Democrat for President: 80%

This is surprisingly low. What’s the other 20%? Third party? Refusing to vote out of protest? Trump?

slatestarscratchpad

Third party (maybe Amash?) or not voting. I’m in California, so it doesn’t cost anyone anything, and it would be satisfying to vote against Biden for the sex allegations and his crime bill. Or it would be totally in character for me to just forget to order an absentee ballot until it’s too late.

Every prediction I’ve heard for how life will change permanently because of the coronavirus is so, so, so bad.

Prediction: life after the coronavirus crisis will be pretty similar to how it was before. Capitalism will not end. Suburbia (or cities) will not end. The car will not end, mass transit will not end, overregulation will not end, our health insurance system will not end. Exactly like before, in every way, everywhere. You heard it here first.

For some reason Tumblr won’t let me reblog the “Haha Biden will obviously lose the Dems are such idiots” post I want to yell about, but you’ve all read a thousand other posts identical to it, so I’ll let you imagine what it says and jump straight to yelling.

I don’t feel especially inspired by Joe Biden, but that’s fine - my taste in politicians is nothing like the average voter’s. If I had been the median Republican primary voter in 2016, we would have had President John Kasich. When we’re talking about electability, I should shut up and listen to what average voters have to say. The Twitterati also don’t feel inspired by Joe Biden, but they also would have voted for John Kasich in the 2016 GOP primary, so they can also shut up.

Average Americans like Joe Biden. We know that because he was way in the lead for most of the 2020 Democratic primary, and he eventually won it. Sure, he lost momentum in February, and the DNC had to intervene to make it a two-man race, but once it was a two-man race voters decisively chose Biden and rejected Bernie. We also know it because Biden’s beating Trump by a 6 point margin in general election polls. We also know it because when pollsters put all the candidates head-to-head against Trump in the general, Biden beats him by the largest margin.

Right now, Biden is leading Trump in all the major swing states. He’s winning Wisconsin by 3, Florida by 3, Michigan by 5, Pennsylvania by 7, etc (Trump won all of those last time).

"But everyone said Hillary was in the lead, and then she lost”. Yeah, that was because she was in the lead for 90-something percent of the race, and then by bad luck the election got held the one week she wasn’t, plus the polls were off by a usual amount (they said she would win the popular vote by +3, but she actually won by +2, which went from slight electoral victory to slight electoral defeat). You can’t go from “She only won the popular vote by two points when the election was held at her lowest point” to “she was a historically bad candidate who it was idiotic to select, and her opponent was a brilliant grand master”.

This doesn’t mean Biden is a shoo-in. He could still lose, just as any well-selected front-runner could still lose. Maybe someone else would have been better than he is - maybe even though whenever you ask voters including swing state voters whether they’d prefer Biden or Bernie they say Biden, they were all lying, or they would change their minds in November, or there would be some insane Bernie turnout youthquake of exactly the sort that never ever happens, and the Democrats aren’t taking this into account. But you can’t call them stupid. They’re betting on the candidate who every single indicator that’s ever worked before says is the best. It’s infuriating to see a bunch of people who would have preferred Andrew Yang or someone say “This candidate is out of touch with me personally, therefore he can’t win, therefore the party leadership is idiots”.

(I think this is less true now that there’s a sexual assault allegation against him, but the party leadership didn’t know that at the time)

I will bet with anyone who thinks that Trump’s chances are significantly better than the 49% that PredictIt gives him. To make it worth my time, let’s say your $2 to my $1 that Trump loses. Bring it on.

nostalgebraist
eightyonekilograms

Software is not only not a meritocracy, in some areas it’s almost a perfect anti-meritocracy. Programming languages are the classic example: historically there’s almost a perfect anticorrelation between how good a language is and how popular it is. There are good reasons for this, but it makes a mockery of the claim by certain folks that software is a meritocracy and so therefore we should stop trying to X, Y or Z.

tototavros

historically there’s almost a perfect anticorrelation between how good a language is and how popular it is

citation very much needed, sure, sure, C++ and Java are bad and too many people use them, but can you imagine people using K or Forth or TCL? Hell, even Prolog, Scheme, OCaml, and Haskell all have pretty serious problems that you should be willing to address before using them, and while I’d maybe take the latter 3 over C++ and Java for a new codebase–we have Python, we have Typescript–they’re not ideal for me, but they’re not bad, and they actually have functional ecosystems

eightyonekilograms

Alright, so, the first thing I want to say is that this tendency has gotten much better in the past decade or so. “The worst languages rise to the top” is mostly a 1970-2005ish phenomenon. 

Really what I meant that rant means is that “programming languages were more likely to be popular if they were free-as-in-beer, but languish in obscurity if they were controlled by one company and you had to pay a lot of money for them”. And this is a good thing, in general - open stuff is better. But it did mean that a lot of the languages that become popular were thrown together by relative amateurs making something to suit their own needs, while the ones carefully designed by professionals tended to come out of big corporations who employed those professions, and they wanted money for them.

(That’s why it’s less of an issue today: now everyone understands that being FOSS is table stakes for a new language, and so even the languages backed by big companies are easy and free to jump in and develop on. Charging money for your compiler is unthinkable today but was an obvious choice back then)

Regarding citations, I think the examples of bad languages rising to the top speak for themselves. For many years, PHP was practically the only language for web programming even though it was an eldritch horror. Perl was huge for a while even though Perl code is more or less unreadable. And of course, there’s JavaScript.

On the other side of the coin, I would cite Ada as the classic example of a good language that was bit by “if it’s not free, nobody cares”. IMO there’s a good chance we would all be writing Ada instead of C++ if it had been free to get a hold of in 1980, and my god the world would be so much better off if that had happened. Also, Ada got done dirty in a smear campaign from both CS academics and West Coast hackers. I won’t get too into this because it’s all ancient history now, but most of the criticisms of Ada were the very same things that everyone praises Rust for today, and I think many of them were really coming from a place of cultural distaste from both of the above crowds for the military (Ada was a DoD project).

And I think it still supports my point about meritocracy: the inferior languages succeeded because of network effects and the up-front frictionlessness of interaction, even if you paid for that many times over later. Is it so hard to believe the equivalent thing happens to humans?

nostalgebraist

This is an interesting take, which I’m reblogging partly for that reason and partly to express my absolute bogglement at the PHP article linked within.

I’ve never used PHP or read anything about it, and … what the fuck??? this sounds like a parody of bad programming languages, like some INTERCAL-style satirical art project … like someone looked at Javascript, said “this just doesn’t feel enough like the PL equivalent of something a child scribbled while learning to use MS Paint,” and put their mind to creating something even closer to the Platonic ideal of Everything Programmers Hate, At Once.

People actually use this thing? Like, in 2020? (I’m so sorry??)

slatestarscratchpad

This is a weird definition of meritocracy, where usability isn’t a form of merit. Is it a market failure that more people drive Toyotas than Ferraris, just because Toyotas are cheaper?

Source: eightyonekilograms